WINDHOEK – Namibia’s nascent oil and gas sector risks deepening the nation’s economic imbalances unless the government pivots away from its traditional extraction-led growth model, Standard Bank Namibia’s group economist has warned. Speaking at the Namibia Budget Dialogue 2026, held in partnership with Emeraldsands Platform, Helena Mboti cautioned that while offshore discoveries have sparked global interest, the “paradox of plenty” remains a tangible threat. Historically, the mining sector has anchored the domestic economy—accounting for approximately 13% of GDP and the lion’s share of export earnings—yet these figures have notoriously failed to move the needle on broad-based employment or poverty reduction.
The urgency of this structural rethink is underscored by the current fiscal climate, where the 2026/27 national budget has reached a record $N105.9$ billion. Mboti argued that the recurring pattern of capital-intensive extraction often creates a “growth-less” recovery for the average citizen, where wealth is concentrated at the top of the value chain. As Namibia positions itself as a regional energy hub, the economist stressed that without a fundamental shift in mindset, the influx of petroleum revenue could exacerbate existing inequalities rather than resolve them. “If we don’t change that mindset now, the concern is that these problems will only be exacerbated with oil and gas and not necessarily solved by oil and gas,” Mboti stated, highlighting that the benefits of the extractive sector have historically struggled to filter into the wider informal and SME sectors.
The dialogue, which also featured global strategist Vusi Thembekwayo and KPMG senior partner Robert Grant, focused heavily on the financing of the Sixth National Development Plan (NDP6). With the government facing a projected borrowing requirement of $N15$ billion to cover its revenue gap, the consensus among industry leaders is that the public sector can no longer carry the burden of industrialization alone. Thembekwayo challenged the domestic market to stop waiting for foreign “saviors” to build its local business ecosystem, noting that no modern economy has ever been catalyzed by the benevolence of outside nation-states. He argued that for the budget to deliver on its promise to ordinary citizens, financial institutions must be willing to take calculated risks on local entrepreneurs rather than merely publishing position papers.
Efficiency and regulatory clarity were also cited as critical bottlenecks to translating resource wealth into national prosperity. Robert Grant of KPMG warned that the “cost of compliance” remains a significant drag on productivity, particularly for small firms attempting to navigate a complex tax and regulatory landscape. As the government aims for an ambitious 7% growth rate by 2030, the dialogue concluded that tax certainty and a more streamlined bureaucratic process are essential to attract the long-term, patient capital required for value addition. The overarching sentiment of the forum was clear: while Namibia’s resources are a once-in-a-lifetime find, their true value will be measured by the “measurable daily actions” taken to diversify the economy away from the drill bit.
